Uzbekistan Launches Real‑Time E‑Invoice Risk Scoring — A New Frontier in Digital Tax Transformation

Uzbekistan has begun piloting an automated, real‑time risk assessment system for electronic invoices — a move experts say represents a next step in digital tax administration that could influence how governments worldwide manage VAT compliance.

The system, launched 1st January 2026, automatically analyses each electronic invoice as it is generated and assigns it a risk level based on predefined criteria.

Under the new mechanism, invoices flagged as high risk (‘red’) will not be eligible for VAT credit until the VAT amount is paid into the state budget, either by the seller or by the buyer acting as a tax agent. Invoices deemed low risk (‘green’) proceed normally. This real‑time classification aims to improve transparency and discourage fraudulent transactions.

The system has already been tested in a trial mode since mid‑2025, with officials noting that no more than about 10 % of invoices are expected to be classified as high risk during the initial rollout. During the test phase, which has run through late 2025, high‑risk classifications have not triggered enforcement actions, allowing taxpayers and authorities to study and refine the approach before full implementation.

According to Uzbekistan’s Tax Committee, the risk assessment platform was developed with international expert input and integrates data from multiple government sources. Risk levels are determined using complex automated criteria, such as compliance history, economic activity indicators, and counterparty characteristics.

Officials say the real‑time scoring mechanism complements the country’s existing UzASBO Faktura e‑invoicing system — already mandatory for many VAT transactions since 2020 — by adding an analytical layer that helps filter out potentially suspicious invoices before they affect VAT reconciliation.

Why this matters: This initiative illustrates a broader shift in tax compliance from periodic audit‑led controls toward continuous, data‑driven supervision at the transaction level. By analysing invoices as they are issued, authorities can intervene earlier, reduce reliance on manual audit processes, and more effectively allocate enforcement resources.

While traditional real‑time tax invoice validation systems (e.g., India’s GST e‑invoicing or Mexico’s clearance models) focus on structural compliance and immediate validation, Uzbekistan’s approach adds automated risk scoring based on invoice content and taxpayer history, blurring the lines between invoice reporting and risk‑based tax control.

Global context: Although most countries adopting digital e‑invoicing frameworks use them to improve data capture and transparency, real‑time risk assessment at the invoice level remains rare. Some jurisdictions focus on centralized clearance or reporting systems, while others (such as certain EU digital tax initiatives) are exploring continuous reporting and analytics. Uzbekistan’s pilot is among the most advanced examples of embedding automated tax risk evaluation directly into the invoicing process.